Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Mortality among Adults with Diabetes in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2025): A Secondary Data Analysis
Abstract:
Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of morbidity and
mortality among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. In sub-Saharan Africa,
the burden of diabetes and its cardiovascular complications have increased
substantially over the past two decades, yet long-term regional trend analyses
remain limited. This study examined trends in diabetes prevalence, major
cardiovascular risk factors, and diabetes-attributable cardiovascular mortality
in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2025, using publicly available secondary
data. A descriptive secondary data analysis was conducted using regionally
aggregated and modelled estimates from the World Health Organisation Global
Health Observatory, the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, and
the Global Burden of Disease Study. Trends in diabetes prevalence,
hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, and diabetes-attributable
cardiovascular mortality were examined across the study period. Diabetes
prevalence increased steadily across sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2025,
with a more pronounced rise observed after 2010. Hypertension emerged as the
most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor among adults with diabetes,
accompanied by increasing levels of obesity and physical inactivity.
Cardiovascular mortality attributable to diabetes also increased consistently
over the study period, with stroke and hypertensive heart disease accounting
for a substantial proportion of deaths. The findings demonstrate a sustained rise in diabetes prevalence, a
progressive accumulation of major cardiovascular risk factors, and increasing
cardiovascular mortality attributable to diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa over
the past two decades. These trends highlight the urgent need for integrated
non-communicable disease prevention strategies and strengthened primary
healthcare systems to reduce the growing cardiovascular burden among people
with diabetes.
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