Association between Rainfall, Temperature, and Dengue Fever Incidence in Selected Regions of Guyana, 2020–2022: A Hydrometeorological Correlation Analysis
Abstract:
Characterizing the meteorological determinants of dengue transmission is critical for developing anticipatory surveillance frameworks in tropical settings like Guyana, where precipitation and temperature fluctuations are intrinsically linked to the reproductive ecology of Aedes aegypti. This study examined the association between monthly and annual hydrometeorological parameters, rainfall (mm), daytime temperature (℃), and nighttime temperature (℃), and confirmed dengue fever case counts in Guyana's administrative Regions 5, 6, and 9 from 2020 to 2022. Data were obtained from the Guyana Ministry of Health national disease notification system and the Guyana Hydrometeorological Service. Descriptive and correlation analyses revealed that the highest annual rainfall year (2021) corresponded with peak dengue case burden nationally (4,384 cases), while Region 6, which recorded both the highest cumulative rainfall (3,348.6 mm in 2021) and the second-greatest case burden, demonstrated the strongest apparent positive association between precipitation and case counts. Daytime temperatures remained relatively stable across the three years (30.6–31.9℃), suggesting limited temperature variability as an independent driver within this range, though nighttime temperatures showed modest co-variation with case trends. These findings provide empirical support for rainfall as a key correlate of dengue incidence in Guyana and lay the foundation for prospective distributed lag non-linear modeling and the development of an early warning system.References:
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