Assessment of Environmental Factors Associated with Endemic Cholera in Lukanga Swamps of Kapiri Mposhi District in Central Province of Zambia
Abstract:
Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, is caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae and is usually transmitted through contaminated water or food. This study assessed the environmental factors associated with endemic cholera in Lukanga Swamps from January 2010 to January, 2018. This was a Time Series Correlational Study. Air temperature and precipitation data were collected from 19 lagoons using satellite remote sensing from 2010 to 2016. Water samples were also collected for analysis. Data were analyzed in Stata Version 14. Results from the standard Poisson regression (PR) model were compared with those from the Zero-Inflated negative binomial regression (ZINBR) to determine the best-fit model. The study reported 133 cholera cases during the study period. It found that increased rainfall was associated with decreased risk of cholera cases (IRR = 0.992, 95% CI: 0.988 – 0.997, P=0.002). We also found that a 1-degree increase in temperature increased the risk of cholera cases by 27%, which was statistically significant (IRR = 1.265, 95% CI: 1.142–1.402, P = 0.0001). Water quality monitoring tests from 19 lagoons revealed that 19/36 (53%) of water samples had faecal coliforms. The study further revealed a pH range of 7.1 to 8.5 or higher. V. cholerae was not isolated from 164 water samples. In conclusion, air temperature was strongly associated with cholera outbreaks in the Lukanga Swamps. Increased rainfall was also associated with a decreased risk of cholera cases. Therefore, a multifaceted approach should be used to prevent and control cholera in Lukanga Swamps.References:
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