Evaluating the Economic Viability of Vaccine Manufacturing in Nigeria: A 10-Year Return on Investment Simulation

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DOI: 10.21522/TIJMD.2013.08.02.Art002

Authors : Longe Sunday Anthony, Abiodun Paul Olaiya, Rajendra Kumar B. C., Kotila Olayinka

Abstract:

Nigeria’s dependence on imported vaccines has exposed significant vulnerabilities, especially during global crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. With a population exceeding 200 million, local vaccine manufacturing is increasingly recognized as a strategic imperative. Regional initiatives, including GAVI’s African Vaccine Manufacturing Accelerator (AVMA) and Africa CDC’s 2040 target of 60% self-reliance, highlights the urgency for national investment. This study assesses the economic viability of establishing a vaccine production facility in Nigeria through a 10-year Return on Investment (ROI) simulation using semantic system dynamics for the analysis. A mixed-methods approach was applied. Quantitative data from structured stakeholder questionnaires were analyzed alongside Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Input-Output Multiplier Analysis, and Scenario-Based Sensitivity (SBS) modeling. Regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between vaccine manufacturing and public health outcomes, specifically Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Death-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Findings show that a $1 billion investment would break even by Year 6 and generate a 250% ROI by Year 10. Stakeholders identified major constraints in financial (mean = 23.1), technological (21.6), and infrastructural (21.8) domains. Infrastructure gaps included cold-chain systems (53.2%), quality control labs (48.6%), and GMP-compliant plants (47.7%). Technological challenges stemmed from limited technical expertise (61.3%) and high maintenance costs (18.9%). Public-private partnerships (PPPs), WHO prequalification alignment, donor funding, and domestic procurement policies were viewed as critical enablers. Therefore, local vaccine manufacturing in Nigeria is not only financially viable but also a strategic imperative for national and regional health security. To ensure sustainability, robust evidence-based planning, targeted regulatory reforms, and innovative funding models are essential.

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