Abstract:

In Nigeria, Plateau State, with its capital Jos Metropolis (JM), is one of 14 high Tuberculosis (TB) burden states with an increasing TB occurrence. There are no reported spatio-temporal studies from JM, therefore, it is not known how TB spatio-temporal clusters may impact TB transmission in JM. Spatio-temporal patterns of TB cases in JM were analysed in this study. Identifying such patterns may help towards the development of TB prevention and control strategies in the JM. Coordinates from Polling Unit Locator (PUL) at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) website were used to geolocate TB cases to their nearest Polling Units within an Electoral Ward (EW). SaTScan software was used to identify space-time TB clusters through a retrospective space-time analysis based on the discrete Poisson model. The TB cases mapped were 4,897 over the study period (2019-2022). Three significant (primary) spatiotemporal TB clusters were identified, with one of them occurring within the 2021-2022 time period. Thirteen EWs were present within the primary cluster (LLR = 436.95, RR = 2.68 and P-value = 0.001). The clusters were located in the central areas of the northern parts of the JM. These spatio-temporal TB clusters can potentially serve as a source of further spread of TB infection and disease to other locations in JM. Due to the space-time nature of these clusters, timely and targeted interventions, particularly in the affected areas, are required to limit and prevent the further spread of TB within the Jos Metropolis.

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